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Value plus Momentum Value + momentum
We took it to KrestTested
A decade of Indian data · 2016 to 2026

Pair two factors that hate each other and the ride is supposed to smooth out. In the one moment that mattered, it did not.

Combining value and momentum is one of the most celebrated ideas in quantitative investing: two edges that rarely fail at the same time, so together they should give a steadier climb. On a decade of Indian data the blend earned a fine return. But the promised protection went missing exactly when you would have wanted it most.

₹10 lakh in the value and momentum blend since 2016
Growth of the portfolio · vs Nifty 500
Top decileTop 30Top 10Nifty 500

Rank every company on both how cheap it is and how strongly it has been rising, and buy the ones that score well on the pair. The blend made about 18% a year against the market's 13.9%, turning ₹10 lakh into roughly ₹58 lakh. Year to year it was indeed steadier than either factor on its own, the two edges taking turns as advertised. The everyday diversification was real. It was the emergency kind that failed.

One backtest is one story. We built 258 portfolios from the blend, one for every month you could have started, held one, three and five years, and watched how wide the outcomes ran. Over a single year, eight in ten holds landed between −29% and +108%, the luckiest start up +156%, the unluckiest down −44%. Stretch the hold and it steadied, over five years the blend beat the index in more than two thirds of runs, and swung less year to year than either factor alone.

The blend did sort, and it did win

Give the theory its due. Ranking stocks by the combined score produced a clean order, cheaper and stronger names beating expensive and weak ones, with a rank correlation of about −0.92. And in ordinary years the pairing behaved just as the theory promised: when value stumbled, momentum often carried, and the reverse. As a way to earn a factor premium with fewer white knuckle years, it worked.

Return by the combined value and momentum score
Full decade return a year · ten buckets · D10 = best combined score
Best bucketNifty 500
A clean sort from the worst combined scores to the best. Rank correlation about −0.92.

But the crash protection never arrived

Here is where the elegant theory met a hard market. The whole appeal of pairing uncorrelated factors is that they should not both collapse together. Yet take every start date and its worst fall over the following five years: the typical start had to sit through a drop of about 56%, and the unluckiest starts fell about 73% from their peak, as deep as pure value and far beyond the index's 34%. In the panic, cheap stocks and strong stocks sold off side by side, and the diversification that had smoothed the quiet years evaporated in the loud one. Correlations, as the old line goes, go to one exactly when you need them apart.

Worst fall over five years, by the month you started
One bar per start date · the dashed line is the typical fall
Not one drawdown but a spread of them, almost every one far deeper than the index's worst. The two factors diversified the calm years and fell together in the storm.
18%
a year for the top 30 · the index made 13.9%
steadier
year to year than value or momentum alone · the everyday benefit was real
−56% to −73%
the five year falls you had to survive, typical to worst, vs the index's −34%
The full teardown

The overview weighs the promise against the panic. In the deep dive we ask whether the blend beat its own two ingredients, what over concentrating did, and which market weather it needed. Short version: a smoother journey, not a safer destination.

Read the full teardown

A steadier climb, but not the safety net it promised

Combining value and momentum is a genuinely good idea, and this test does not overturn it. Year in and year out, the blend really was calmer than either factor alone, and it beat the market handsomely. But if you bought it for the crash insurance, read the drawdown again. Factor diversification smooths the ordinary bumps and does very little about the once a decade cliff, because in a true panic almost everything falls together. Know which kind of protection you are actually buying, because the difference only shows up on the worst day, when it is too late to learn it.

So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.

KREST TESTED · RUN ON REAL HISTORY ·
Method mark
Krest Tested
We ran the value and momentum blend through the test on a decade of Indian data, calm years and the crash. The rigour is ours; the verdict is yours.

Free · no account needed

Test before you trust.

Every figure on this page came from a few clicks on Krest. See this exact analysis live and interactive, or point the same test at any strategy you have ever believed.

For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.

Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.

Figures reflect a value and momentum blend (earnings yield, price to book and 12 month momentum, positive EBIT, market cap above ₹1,000 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. The value and momentum combination is associated with Cliff Asness and AQR. Because this rests on about ten years of data, a longer run of history could change the conclusions.

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