It looked like the one screen that lost to the index. Over the holds that matter, it beat the market more often than not.
Every other strategy we have tested tried to beat the market. This one tried to lose less. On the single ten year number it did trail a plain index fund, which is the story almost everyone stops at. But look across every start month, held one, three and five years, and a different picture appears: over three and five year holds the calmest stocks beat the market in six of every ten, while barely moving.
One backtest is one story. We built 258 portfolios from the screen, one for every month you could have started, held one, three and five years, and asked the plain questions: did the calm actually cost you return, how often did steadiness beat the market, and what did the smoother ride spare you along the way?
Judged on the single ten year buy and hold number, this screen trailed the index, and that is the measure everyone stops at. But it is also the measure that hides the most. Ask instead the question that matches how people actually invest: pick a month, hold for a while, and how often did the calm decile finish ahead of the market? Over one year holds it was a coin flip. But over three and five year holds it beat the market in six of every ten. Almost nobody earns the index return anyway, because almost nobody sits still through the falls. That is where the calm paid you back.
Behind that average sat a notably narrow spread. Eight in ten one year holds landed between −4% and +48%, the luckiest start up 62%, the unluckiest down just 21%. That is a far tighter band than the wild screens hand out, and it is the whole point: this is a screen you buy for its calm, not its ceiling.
It delivered exactly the calm it promised
Look at the falls, not the finish. Take every start date and its worst drop over the following five years: the typical stretch bottomed about 31% below its peak, a shade shallower than the index's 34%, and even the unluckiest start fell only about 37%. Nowhere near the 60% and 70% collapses the aggressive screens we have tested handed out. No screen here bought a smoother ride. The businesses underneath are the reason: steady, boring, cash generative, the kind that keep selling toothpaste and soap whatever the economy does.
A portfolio you could genuinely forget you owned
The opposite of a momentum basket. Where momentum tears itself up every year, this one barely moved. The same defensive names sat in it almost the entire decade: Procter & Gamble, Colgate, Gillette, Hindustan Unilever, household staples held ninety percent of the time or more. Nothing to trade, nothing to tax, nothing to check. A portfolio you could set down and walk away from, which for most investors is worth more than a percent or two of return.
Behind on the ten year number, ahead in most real holds
Here is the honest verdict. On the single ten year number the low volatility screen trailed, so do not expect the textbook anomaly to hand you a bigger headline return in India. But that number is the one investors least often actually earn. Over the three and five year holds people really keep, the calm decile beat the market in six of every ten, and it did so through falls far gentler than the index. A strategy that wins more of your real holds and is genuinely easy to sit through can beat, in your actual account, an index you keep abandoning at the bottom. Whether that trade is right for you is not a question the backtest can answer. It is a question about you.
So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.
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Every figure on this page came from a few clicks on Krest. See this exact analysis live and interactive, or point the same test at any strategy you have ever believed.
For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.
Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.
Figures reflect a low volatility screen (ranked by one year price volatility and beta, market cap above ₹1,000 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. The low risk anomaly has been documented widely, including by Blitz and van Vliet (2007). Because this rests on about ten years of data, a longer run of history could change the conclusions.
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