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Value Composite Six-factor value composite
We took it to KrestTested
A decade of Indian data · 2016 to 2026

The highest return we have tested came from the oldest idea in investing. Just buy what is cheap, six ways at once.

No quality screen, no momentum, no story. The value composite scores every company on six measures of cheapness and buys the cheapest. On a decade of Indian data it turned ₹10 lakh into about ₹1.1 crore, the biggest number we have tested. The price of that return is the rest of the article.

₹10 lakh in the cheapest of the cheap since 2016
Growth of the portfolio · vs Nifty 500
Top decileTop 30Top 10Nifty 500

Score every stock on price to book, price to earnings, price to sales, earnings yield, cash flow yield and dividend yield, all at once, and buy the thirty cheapest. That is the whole method. It made about 30% a year against the market's 13.9%, turning ₹10 lakh into roughly ₹1.1 crore. Here is the quiet surprise: when we tested the same composite with a momentum filter added, in our Trending Value piece, it made less. On this decade of Indian data, refining pure value only dulled it.

One backtest is one story, so we built 258 portfolios from the screen, one for every month you could have started, held one, three and five years. The range is enormous: over a single year, eight in ten holds landed between −23% and +86%, the best +166%, the worst −59%. A 30% average sits on top of outcomes that wide.

Cheap beat dear, cleanly and hugely

The ranking worked, and it worked hard. Sort the market into ten buckets by the composite score and the returns climb almost unbroken from the expensive end to the cheap, a rank correlation of about −0.89. This is deep value at its most convincing: in a decade that rewarded India's unloved cyclicals, buying them by the basketful, and buying the very cheapest hardest, paid enormously.

Return by the composite score, expensive to cheap
Full decade return a year · ten buckets · D10 = cheapest
Cheapest bucketNifty 500
A clean, steep staircase. Rank correlation about −0.89.

And the bill was as large as the reward

Nothing this powerful comes free. Take every start date and its worst fall over the following five years: the typical start had to hold through a drop of about 60%, and the unluckiest fell about 77% from the peak, against the index's 34%, in a basket of deeply out of favour materials and energy names. The highest raw return here and one of its deepest drawdowns are the same strategy. This is the raw, uncushioned version of value, and almost nobody can hold the raw version.

Worst fall over five years, by the month you started
One bar per start date · the dashed line is the typical fall
Not one drawdown but a spread of them, almost every one far deeper than the index's worst.
30%
a year for the top 30 · the index made 13.9%
−60% to −77%
the five year falls, typical to worst · vs the index's −34%
−0.89
rank correlation · the six way cheapness sort genuinely worked

A basket of the unwanted, mostly very small

Six sophisticated ratios led, as cheapness always does, to the unglamorous edge of the market: Oil and Natural Gas, Gujarat Narmada, GHCL, Vedanta, a portfolio of commodity and energy cyclicals, and overwhelmingly small ones. This is the same corner of the market a single cheapness number finds. The composite did not change where value lives. It just bought it more aggressively.

The stocks it kept buying
Share of yearly rebuilds each name survived
Where the money sat · average sector weight
By company size, share of the basket
The full teardown

In the deep dive we test whether all six metrics beat one, what concentrating did to that record return, and what this juggernaut really is once you strip the name off. Short version: a fierce, cheap, small cap tilt with real and large alpha.

Read the full teardown

The most return, for the least comfort

The Value Composite is a reminder that the highest returning idea is rarely the easiest to own. It beat the market by a huge margin and its ranking sorted beautifully, so the edge is as real as any we have found. But it earned that by buying the market's most hated stocks and holding them through a near 70% collapse, and by resisting every urge to make it safer, an urge that, when we indulged it with momentum, only cost return. Pure value works. The question is never whether it works, but whether you could survive owning it, which is exactly the thing to settle before you start.

So we took it to Krest, and ran it through the whole test.

KREST TESTED · RUN ON REAL HISTORY ·
Method mark
Krest Tested
We ran the Value Composite through the test on a decade of Indian data, metric by metric. The rigour is ours; the verdict is yours.

Free · no account needed

Test before you trust.

Every figure on this page came from a few clicks on Krest. See this exact analysis live and interactive, or point the same test at any strategy you have ever believed.

For education only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, strategy, or product. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investing carries risk, including the possible loss of capital. Make your own decisions, and consider consulting a SEBI registered investment adviser.

Best effort analysis. Prepared on a best effort basis from historical data and may contain errors, omissions, or assumptions. Shared for information and discussion only, and should be independently verified before you rely on it. Krest accepts no liability for any decision made or loss incurred based on it.

Figures reflect O'Shaughnessy's Value Composite (a six factor cheapness composite, market cap above ₹500 cr), reconstructed yearly over the last ten years of Indian data (since June 2016), measured against the Nifty 500 total return index. Described by James O'Shaughnessy in What Works on Wall Street. Because this rests on about ten years of data, a longer run of history could change the conclusions.

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